Week 12

[ofred]

Last Week:

Large 6-4
Small 2-6, included in that 0-3 on weekday plays. But here we go:

Buffalo -3 (-127) These two teams are considered the mid-level MAC teams, which means they are pretty awful. UB has played much better at home than on the road. Their QB has become a better dual threat in recent games, passing with better accuracy. They also have nice run game, and multiple options at receiver. Ball State has surprised us. They were supposed to be down at the bottom of the MAC with Kent State. Yet they are playing teams close, winning a few. They are a really young team that has a great TE, but not much else. Got a feeling Ball State is overdue for a poor outing on the road.

Akron +15 NIU is an enigma kind of. They really have very little in the way of a passing attack. Their QB has some of the worst passing numbers in the MAC. Good running game though, and a strong DL. They really dink and dunk their way down the field to supplement their run game, but use a lot of time. Even though their DL is one of the best in the mAC, the defense is vulnerable at times to a decent passing attack. Akron is not at their level, but they are a really high effort team. They lost to Rutgers, Ohio State and South Carolina, but otherwise can compete with MAC opponents. A decnet offense with some balance of running and passing. QB Ben Finley, formerly of NC State, gives Akron their first legit QB in many years. I think NIU will burn a lot of clock, and settle for a FG or two, giving Akron a chance to cover the 15.

 

[Aristo]

Sorry Fred, these plays are small or large? Keep up the great work! Year in and year out, you are consistently great!

 

[JBS39]

GL Fred

 

[ofred]

Small.

 

[ofred]

Who would've thought Buffalo would score 45 in regulation and be lucky to get a push? OVER was the right play.

Large:

Houston +1.5 Arizona is off a bye, but I'm wagering they won't be able to fix their broken offense. They have 2 number one draft choices on the offense, but can't do anything with the talent they have. A lot of blame rests with Brennan and his coaching staff. They do have some injuries, and the run game has stalled. The defense has steadily regressed. Their earlier upset of Utah doesn't look so good anymore. And their loss to an injury riddled WVU team was embarrassing. If you look at offensive team stats for the Big 12, Arizona is right down at the bottom with Houston...although Houston's stats are modified somewhat with their two shutout losses earlier. Houston's offense was mired with a glut of penalties, and poor decisions by then QB Donovan Smith. Now they have cleaned up their game, have discovered some very good young RBs, and a dual threat QB In Zeon Chriss- a QB that who won't wow you with passing stats, but has decent touch. And their defense has been their calling card. Very good tacklers, keep to their assignments, etc.

Washington -3 (-127) Washington coming off a beatdown at PSU. Penn State was due for that kind of game after their loss to OSU. UW is a better team at home, beating Michigan and USC there, and it should be a cool and damp Friday night. Good football weather vs. a SoCal team. Both UW and UCLA have issues with their OLs. UW has an outstanding RB in Coleman, UCLA has Garbers making plays while running for his life. UW will start Will Rogers at QB, who has played pretty well at home(71% completion rate), with their backup QB also playing to give them a running option. UCLA off of 3 straight upset victories over Iowa, Rutgers and Nebraska. I don't think they have another upset in them. In their 5 losses, they only averaged 14 points per game.... and do turn it over quite a bit.

 

[ofred]

Early Saturday Large:

Northwestern +29.5 The venue of Wrigley Field just makes me think this game gets a little wonky. Grass, divots, weird layout of the field. Northwestern will need their QB to play as he has a for a few games this season, and not like the crappy others. In other words, at least a game manager with some RPO and scrambling to pass. Ohio State has Indiana on tap next week, and I doubt they'll need to run up the score and risk injury in the 2H. I'm not sure, but I think the Wrigley greass is pretty thick, and this could slow down the OSU receivers a bit. OSU looks like the number 2 team in the country, but not as good as previous OSU teams.

Arkansas +13.5 The feeling here is that Texas is a bit overrated and hasn't faced many good QBs or offenses this season. Arkansas has their star RB back, and Taylen Green can make things interesting with his mobility. Arkansas off a bye, Texas off a beatdown of Florida playing with a QB that has no business playing FBS football. Pittman's teams have had some upsets and close losses over the past few years, and this could be another.

Louisiana Tech +14 (-115) After I trashed LT last week in my Jacksonville St. bet, I've reconsidered. WKU has played garbage most of the season and gave up over 300 yards rushing to NMSU recently. LT QB Evan Bullock is showing growth and the ability to drive his team down the field. They should have beaten JS last week. WKU has a habit of not being able to put teams away, and LT's defense is respectable enough to make that true again.

Tulane -7 If you've seen Tulane play, you know how good they are on both sides of the ball. If they can properly keep their defensive assignments vs. this Navy team, they can absolutely beat them convincingly. Tulane has such a dynamic offense, and I just can't see the Navy defense able to physically match stop them. Tulane will probably be left out of the playoff seeding, and that early K. State loss will be one of the reasons. They matched up easily with them, but blew it late.